PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 697 bans
Techies
405 picks · 324 bans
Mars
404 picks · 656 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
387 picks · 853 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 487 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:35
TiltedBoys 43%Apex Genesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 1:03:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzbgod
Naga SirenLowskill
75% · 4 games
BrewmasterFayde
44% · 5 games
Death Prophetred2
little data
MiranaYamSun
32% · 15 games
RubickBliNcc
Game 2prediction missed42:43
TiltedBoys 42%Apex Genesis 58%
The model gave 58% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 1:00:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzbgod
Pangolierred2
58% · 8 games
Monkey KingLowskill
40% · 6 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
38% · 4 games
GyrocopterBliNcc
56% · 5 games
PhoenixYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 66%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2