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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 9 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 7 games
71%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Yor · 5 games
60%

Infinity Esports

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Techies
Techies
Demon · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Demon · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 696 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 654 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
404 picks · 324 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
385 picks · 851 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 484 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Estar Backs
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Estar Backs 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
49% · 87 games54% · 135 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDarkMago
45% · 190 games48% · 215 games
TimbersawPiPi
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireSacred
42% · 171 game56% · 266 games
Primal BeastOscar
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
47% · 269 games60% · 216 games
TerrorbladeYadomi
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMichael
46% · 239 games53% · 124 games
GrimstrokeDemon
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct50:26
Estar Backs 59%Infinity Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMnz
43% · 110 games56% · 104 games
LeshracPiPi
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
48% · 325 games51% · 156 games
SvenParker
Sven
Timbersaw
TimbersawSacred
49% · 206 games48% · 99 games
DawnbreakerOscar
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
47% · 271 game51% · 348 games
TechiesDemon
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMichael
50% · 105 games55% · 310 games
BatriderYadomi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 65%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2