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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 689 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 649 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
396 picks · 323 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 471 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
382 picks · 840 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 602 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:34
Rest Farmers 68%GRIN esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 39:37.
Game 2prediction missed32:18
Rest Farmers 68%GRIN esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 38:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 68%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2