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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Luna
Luna
shiro · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
shiro · 11 games
64%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sheep · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
sheep · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 687 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 646 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 362 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
393 picks · 323 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 462 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
380 picks · 839 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
360 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 599 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
LGD Gaming 75%Dark Horse 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSetsu
53% · 13 games47% · 206 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
38% · 33 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniu
53% · 56 games
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
61% · 65 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
60% · 39 games
Game 2prediction correct24:17
LGD Gaming 75%Dark Horse 25%
The model gave 75% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
45% · 36 games51% · 153 games
Vengeful Spiritsheep
Vengeful Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSetsu
50% · 16 games
Mars
Marsniu
61% · 58 games
Tusk
TuskPyw
50% · 34 games
Disruptor
Disruptory`
31% · 9 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 90%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2