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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 13 games
62%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 685 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 645 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
393 picks · 362 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
393 picks · 323 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 461 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
379 picks · 837 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
359 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 598 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Virtus.pro 84%ASAKURA 16%
The model gave 84% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:44.
Game 2prediction correct35:30
Virtus.pro 84%ASAKURA 16%
The model gave 84% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 59:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 84%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2