PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KEVloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Luna
lou · 24 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
Lion
fy · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
Tinysignature
fy · 17 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lou · 17 games
KEV
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Techies
Undyne_ · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
flyfly · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 681 bans
Mars
396 picks · 642 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Techies
392 picks · 323 bans
Batrider
377 picks · 831 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 459 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
Azure Ray 77%KEV 23%
The model gave 77% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidlou
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
ZeusOri
RazorELeVeN
TimbersawFaith_bian
Weaverflyfly
Shadow Shamanfy
ClockwerkUndyne_
Elder Titan天命
Game 2prediction correct30:14
Azure Ray 77%KEV 23%
The model gave 77% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
Templar Assassinflyfly
Death ProphetOri
RazorButterflyEffect
TimbersawFaith_bian
BatriderELeVeN
Shadow Shamanfy
Vengeful SpiritUndyne_
Elder Titan天命
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 92%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2