PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionRGRavage Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lavawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravage Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 680 bans
Mars
396 picks · 637 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
Batrider
377 picks · 831 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 455 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Ravage Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Ravage Gaming 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 24:23.
Game 2prediction correct16:40
Ravage Gaming 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 75%
Series resultLava 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2