DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 2:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:2
Estar Backsloss 2:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
KJ · 13 games
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 9 games
Estar Backs
Crystal Maidensignature
Yor · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Michael · 7 games
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Rubick
Michael · 5 games
Sven
Mnz · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 679 bans
Mars
394 picks · 636 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Techies
392 picks · 320 bans
Batrider
375 picks · 829 bans
Tiny
375 picks · 451 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Heroic 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaK1
LifestealerMnz
Viper4nalog
Dragon KnightDarkMago
VisageDavai
MarsSacred
TinyScofield
RubickMichael
GyrocopterKJ
Dark WillowYor
Game 2prediction missed22:16
Heroic 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerK1
Faceless VoidMnz
Leshrac4nalog
Storm SpiritDarkMago
LycanDavai
Primal BeastSacred
Shadow DemonKJ
GrimstrokeMichael
RubickScofield
DisruptorYor
Game 3prediction correct22:33
Heroic 49%Estar Backs 51%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverK1
LunaMnz
Huskar4nalog
PangolierDarkMago
Primal BeastDavai
MagnusSacred
Shadow DemonKJ
BatriderMichael
ClockwerkScofield
GrimstrokeYor
Game 4prediction correct45:16
Heroic 51%Estar Backs 49%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidK1
LeshracDarkMago
Pangolier4nalog
GyrocopterMnz
Death ProphetDavai
MarsSacred
EarthshakerScofield
Elder TitanYor
GrimstrokeKJ
RubickMichael
Game 5prediction missed36:28
Heroic 48%Estar Backs 52%
The model gave 52% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Heroic in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistK1
LunaMnz
Dark SeerDavai
PangolierDarkMago
Death Prophet4nalog
DawnbreakerSacred
GrimstrokeKJ
BatriderMichael
EarthshakerScofield
DisruptorYor
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 51%
Accuracy by game3 of 5