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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 28 games
61%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 14 games
57%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
85%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 678 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 633 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
391 picks · 318 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 447 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
373 picks · 825 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total50% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
OG 48%Tundra Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
50% · 165 games46% · 227 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 362 games57% · 22 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaWisper
55% · 170 games49% · 235 games
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
48% · 279 games48% · 255 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
51% · 25 games52% · 262 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Game 2prediction correct7:28
OG 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
50% · 115 games46% · 108 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
53% · 149 games45% · 82 games
RazorTopson
Razor
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
53% · 122 games44% · 96 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaCeb
56% · 233 games46% · 402 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Tiny
TinyAri
50% · 218 games57% · 149 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2