DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 3:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Nigma Galaxyloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 14 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 10 games
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 11 games
Batridersignature
rmN- · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KuroKy · 8 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Miranasignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 675 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Mars
392 picks · 631 bans
Techies
389 picks · 318 bans
Tiny
373 picks · 444 bans
Batrider
372 picks · 824 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total74% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
PSG Quest 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTA2000
LunaMiracle-
PuckNo!ob
DoomFbz
Dragon KnightMalik
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Shadow DemonOmaR
PugnaMatthew
Crystal MaidenDukalis
MiranaKuroKy
Game 2prediction missed16:31
PSG Quest 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciTA2000
LeshracSumaiL
MarsMalik
WindrangerMiracle-
TinyNo!ob
KunkkaFbz
BatriderOmaR
TechiesMatthew
IoDukalis
DisruptorKuroKy
Game 3prediction correct31:28
PSG Quest 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
Dragon KnightSumaiL
LifestealerTA2000
RazorFbz
MarsMalik
WindrangerMiracle-
Shadow DemonOmaR
HoodwinkMatthew
Crystal MaidenDukalis
DisruptorKuroKy
Game 4prediction missed32:24
PSG Quest 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:11:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
MedusaMiracle-
DoomMalik
LeshracSumaiL
Death ProphetNo!ob
BeastmasterFbz
TechiesOmaR
Elder TitanKuroKy
DisruptorDukalis
RubickMatthew
Game 5prediction correct21:8
PSG Quest 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Anti-MageMiracle-
Dragon KnightMalik
BrewmasterFbz
Faceless VoidTA2000
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
MiranaOmaR
EnchantressKuroKy
Elder TitanDukalis
TerrorbladeMatthew
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 74%
Series resultPSG Quest 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5