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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Bob · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 7 games
29%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
416 picks · 671 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 630 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
389 picks · 315 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 818 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 442 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 580 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:31
Yangon Galacticos 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 54:08.
Game 2prediction missed36:17
Yangon Galacticos 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 36:11.
Game 3prediction missed32:23
Yangon Galacticos 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 35:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3