DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 3:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Zeroloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Luna
lou · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
Lion
fy · 20 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
Team Zero
Miranasignature
zzq · 11 games
Batridersignature
iceice · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
Lion
Ponlo · 9 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Luna
poyoyo · 7 games
Muertasignature
iceice · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
414 picks · 670 bans
Mars
391 picks · 629 bans
Lion
389 picks · 360 bans
Techies
387 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 816 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 437 bans
Vengeful Spirit
356 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total82% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:25
Azure Ray 68%Team Zero 32%
The model gave 68% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawFaith_bian
Lunapoyoyo
Lifestealerlou
DoomBEYOND
Primal BeastOri
Kunkka7e
Shadow Shamanfy
Nature's Prophetzzq
Crystal Maiden天命
LionPonlo
Game 2prediction missed23:37
Azure Ray 69%Team Zero 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Alchemistpoyoyo
Storm SpiritOri
Pangolier7e
MarsFaith_bian
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Techiesfy
Batriderzzq
Crystal Maiden天命
LionPonlo
Game 3prediction correct31:8
Azure Ray 69%Team Zero 31%
The model gave 69% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelou
Lunapoyoyo
ZeusOri
Kunkka7e
TimbersawFaith_bian
TinyBEYOND
Shadow Shamanfy
EnchantressPonlo
Elder Titan天命
Crystal Maidenzzq
Game 4prediction missed14:34
Azure Ray 66%Team Zero 34%
The model gave 66% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenlou
Weaverpoyoyo
LeshracOri
Keeper of the Light7e
TidehunterFaith_bian
KunkkaBEYOND
Shadow Shamanfy
Clockwerkzzq
Mirana天命
LionPonlo
Game 5prediction correct36:13
Azure Ray 67%Team Zero 33%
The model gave 67% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterlou
Alchemistpoyoyo
RazorFaith_bian
Magnus7e
KunkkaOri
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Elder Titan天命
Shadow DemonPonlo
Tinyfy
Grimstrokezzq
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 82%
Series resultAzure Ray 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5