PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionRERandoms Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RGRavage Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Randoms Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Ravage Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Randoms Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Randoms Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Randoms Esports 56%Ravage Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Ravage Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Randoms Esports 56%Ravage Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Randoms Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
Randoms Esports 56%Ravage Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Randoms Esports — the game was taken by Ravage Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteRandoms Esports · 56%
Series resultRavage Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3