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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 5 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
0%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
100%

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yor · 4 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
100%
Sven
Sven
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
411 picks · 663 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 624 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 313 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
370 picks · 809 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 431 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Midas Club
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
Midas Club 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoFCR
57% · 32 games53% · 138 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCostabile
52% · 130 games51% · 177 games
Faceless VoidMnz
Faceless Void
Mars
Mars4dr
45% · 203 games47% · 54 games
DawnbreakerSacred
Dawnbreaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWij
55% · 239 games46% · 294 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Tusk
TuskHyko
47% · 199 games50% · 140 games
DisruptorYor
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct8:39
Midas Club 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCostabile
55% · 142 games49% · 84 games
WeaverMnz
Weaver
Timbersaw
Timbersaw4dr
44% · 203 games49% · 244 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarFCR
52% · 63 games49% · 158 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Batrider
BatriderHyko
48% · 275 games53% · 159 games
Crystal MaidenYor
Crystal Maiden
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionWij
49% · 90 games52% · 128 games
GrimstrokeMichael
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 62%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2