DreamLeague Season 29 · BO5
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 3:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Aurora Gamingloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Slardarsignature
SSS · 32 games
Kezsignature
Satanic · 29 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
Tiny
Satanic · 20 games
Aurora Gaming
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 56 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 55 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 49 games
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 40 games
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
545 picks · 333 bans
Phoenix
473 picks · 571 bans
Rubick
438 picks · 233 bans
Tiny
425 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 494 bans
Jakiro
329 picks · 224 bans
Puck
321 picks · 849 bans
Beastmaster
316 picks · 810 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:13
PARIVISION 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSatanic
TinyNightfall
PangolierNo[o]ne
TimbersawWs
SlardarNoticed
PuckMikoto
Witch DoctorDukalis
PhoenixKaori
Lion9Class
BaneMira
Game 2prediction missed29:40
PARIVISION 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSatanic
TimbersawWs
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
TinyNightfall
SlardarNoticed
Queen of PainMikoto
Lion9Class
PhoenixKaori
SilencerDukalis
BaneMira
Game 3prediction correct34:25
PARIVISION 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 55:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSatanic
TinyNightfall
DawnbreakerNoticed
PuckMikoto
PangolierNo[o]ne
LargoWs
Io9Class
PhoenixKaori
Witch DoctorDukalis
BaneMira
Game 4prediction missed15:30
PARIVISION 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSatanic
AlchemistNightfall
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
LargoWs
AxeNoticed
PuckMikoto
ChenDukalis
EnchantressKaori
Lion9Class
HoodwinkMira
Game 5prediction correct19:21
PARIVISION 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSatanic
NecrophosNightfall
PangolierNo[o]ne
DawnbreakerWs
AxeNoticed
PuckMikoto
Io9Class
PhoenixKaori
BaneDukalis
HoodwinkMira
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 58%
Series resultPARIVISION 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5