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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 22 games
68%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 14 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 11 games
73%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 28 games
61%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 663 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 624 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 313 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 808 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 430 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:19
Team Liquid 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
49% · 177 games55% · 25 games
Arc WardenTimado
Arc Warden
Marci
MarcimiCKe
46% · 45 games55% · 154 games
Miranabzm
Mirana
Doom
Doom33
52% · 279 games49% · 167 games
Primal BeastWisper
Primal Beast
Io
IoBoxi
51% · 69 games54% · 100 games
WindrangerCeb
Windranger
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
49% · 39 games43% · 163 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct30:2
Team Liquid 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
48% · 106 games49% · 119 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
60% · 60 games51% · 53 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Slardar
Slardar33
56% · 39 games42% · 166 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
47% · 128 games55% · 20 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
51% · 92 games50% · 67 games
IoCeb
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2