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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
niche · 5 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 2 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
niche · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
niche · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
niche · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
niche · 1 game
100%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 16 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 12 games
58%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 662 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 624 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 313 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 808 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 428 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 28%
Hero pool strength62% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
Passion UA 29%B8 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:49.
Game 2prediction missed
Passion UA 29%B8 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 3prediction missed7:25
Passion UA 29%B8 Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 71%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3