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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 3 games
67%

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
Moonlight · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 660 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 622 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 313 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
369 picks · 808 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
366 picks · 428 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Night Pulse 82%Monte 18%
The model gave 82% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Monte in 20:34.
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Night Pulse 82%Monte 18%
The model gave 82% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 42:26.
Game 3prediction correct27:39
Night Pulse 82%Monte 18%
The model gave 82% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 51:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 82%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3