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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 21 game
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Whitemon · 9 games
44%

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 11 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 656 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 619 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 798 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 418 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
Tundra Esports 61%Team Secret 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
39% · 61 game46% · 290 games
MorphlingCrystallis
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerTopson
56% · 147 games48% · 299 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
49% · 202 games50% · 235 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Batrider
Batrider9Class
54% · 257 games54% · 132 games
TuskAhFu
Tusk
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
51% · 289 games
Game 2prediction correct38:21
Tundra Esports 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
39% · 87 games55% · 166 games
Naga SirenCrystallis
Naga Siren
Sniper
SniperTopson
45% · 19 games52% · 258 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTobi
50% · 138 games52% · 161 game
Death ProphetPuppey
Death Prophet
Rubick
Rubick9Class
45% · 299 games61% · 121 game
GyrocopterAhFu
Gyrocopter
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
47% · 163 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2