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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 10 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 7 games
71%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 7 games
71%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 28 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 12 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 653 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 357 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 311 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 791 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 413 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
354 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:33
MOUZ 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
60% · 137 games55% · 84 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 275 games51% · 94 games
Razorbzm
Razor
Leshrac
LeshracSupream^
53% · 114 games47% · 136 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
60% · 98 games39% · 300 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterbengan
45% · 150 games44% · 160 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed38:13
MOUZ 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
61% · 180 games48% · 141 game
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
45% · 185 games46% · 149 games
Windrangerbzm
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
54% · 286 games47% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
64% · 91 game48% · 142 games
Keeper of the LightCeb
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
50% · 260 games41% · 393 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct32:24
MOUZ 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
43% · 138 games55% · 122 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
49% · 80 games53% · 246 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaForce
46% · 93 games46% · 107 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
55% · 155 games41% · 11 games
Shadow ShamanAri
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
51% · 133 games52% · 113 games
Vengeful SpiritCeb
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 81%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3