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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fun gamersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 5 games
80%

Fun gamers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 653 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 357 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 619 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
380 picks · 308 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 790 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 412 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
354 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 204 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
Nigma Galaxy 86%Fun gamers 14%
The model gave 86% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Fun gamers in 29:59.
Game 2prediction correct28:6
Nigma Galaxy 86%Fun gamers 14%
The model gave 86% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 17:50.
Game 3prediction correct32:5
Nigma Galaxy 86%Fun gamers 14%
The model gave 86% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 17:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 86%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3