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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dark Horsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sheep · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
50%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 652 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 356 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 619 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 308 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 788 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 411 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
353 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:51
KEV 64%Dark Horse 36%
The model gave 64% on KEV — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 1:04:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzflyfly
57% · 10 games49% · 93 games
Clockwerksheep
Clockwerk
Kunkka
KunkkaButterflyEffect
55% · 18 games
Enigma
EnigmaELeVeN
52% · 25 games
Techies
TechiesUndyne_
43% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct33:4
KEV 64%Dark Horse 36%
The model gave 64% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 18:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
38% · 12 games54% · 144 games
Clockwerksheep
Clockwerk
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
37% · 34 games
Doom
DoomELeVeN
48% · 71 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
61% · 27 games
Game 3prediction missed40:28
KEV 68%Dark Horse 32%
The model gave 68% on KEV — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
45% · 109 games48% · 158 games
Techiessheep
Techies
Razor
RazorELeVeN
45% · 16 games
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
68% · 15 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeUndyne_
50% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 74%
Series resultDark Horse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3