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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 0:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Brightwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Xwy · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 7 games
29%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 652 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 356 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 619 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 308 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 788 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
357 picks · 411 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
353 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KEV 66%Team Bright 34%
The model gave 66% on KEV — the game was taken by Team Bright.
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 66%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1