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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KEVloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 652 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 356 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 618 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 308 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 788 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
356 picks · 411 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
353 picks · 355 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Azure Ray 86%KEV 14%
The model gave 86% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray.
Game 2prediction correct
Azure Ray 86%KEV 14%
The model gave 86% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 86%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2