PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBuriedloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KEVwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Buried
No games played over 6 months.
KEV
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Omniknight
ELeVeN · 5 games
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Techies
Undyne_ · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 652 bans
Lion
385 picks · 356 bans
Mars
385 picks · 618 bans
Techies
378 picks · 308 bans
Batrider
362 picks · 788 bans
Tiny
356 picks · 411 bans
Vengeful Spirit
353 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% KEV
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Buried 17%KEV 83%
The model gave 83% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV.
Game 2prediction correct
Buried 17%KEV 83%
The model gave 83% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV.
Model check result
Model favoriteKEV · 83%
Series resultKEV 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2