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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
0%

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 4 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
StingeR · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 652 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 356 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 615 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 307 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
360 picks · 786 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 408 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
352 picks · 353 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Lava 37%Estar Backs 63%
The model gave 63% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLumière
49% · 312 games43% · 51 game
Drow RangerMnz
Drow Ranger
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFrank
51% · 79 games46% · 207 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Leshrac
LeshracGenek
61% · 139 games49% · 113 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Undying
UndyingGardick
51% · 277 games47% · 307 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
48% · 129 games
Crystal MaidenYor
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:22
Lava 35%Estar Backs 65%
The model gave 65% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Lava in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLumière
43% · 87 games59% · 106 games
SvenMnz
Sven
Mars
MarsFrank
47% · 135 games62% · 77 games
LeshracDarkMago
Leshrac
Tiny
TinyGenek
52% · 151 game46% · 101 game
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaGardick
46% · 119 games43% · 158 games
TerrorbladeMichael
Terrorblade
55% · 50 games
Elder TitanYor
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct20:36
Lava 36%Estar Backs 64%
The model gave 64% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLumière
50% · 152 games38% · 47 games
Phantom AssassinMnz
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFrank
51% · 222 games53% · 290 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderGenek
51% · 294 games52% · 203 games
MagnusSacred
Magnus
Undying
UndyingGardick
48% · 167 games51% · 108 games
GrimstrokeMichael
Grimstroke
54% · 187 games
Crystal MaidenYor
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 74%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3