PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
South Teamloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Leviatanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South Team
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Leviatan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 652 bans
Lion
385 picks · 355 bans
Mars
383 picks · 614 bans
Techies
378 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 784 bans
Tiny
354 picks · 407 bans
Vengeful Spirit
352 picks · 352 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
South Team 34%Leviatan 66%
The model gave 66% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 41:50.
Game 2prediction correct46:26
South Team 34%Leviatan 66%
The model gave 66% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 1:03:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 66%
Series resultLeviatan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2