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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Panda · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Pakazs · 7 games
71%

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 2 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 2 games
100%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 651 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 613 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
377 picks · 307 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
360 picks · 782 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
353 picks · 404 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
351 picks · 352 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
334 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
BOOM Esports 75%Lava 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
53% · 37 games47% · 15 games
Shadow FiendLumière
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
LycanILICH-
51% · 45 games45% · 73 games
MarsFrank
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
55% · 90 games49% · 61 game
ClockwerkGardick
Clockwerk
46% · 23 games
InvokerGenek
Invoker
Game 2prediction correct48:24
BOOM Esports 74%Lava 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgePakazs
45% · 44 games55% · 21 game
Phantom AssassinLumière
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsILICH-
54% · 185 games49% · 122 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
52% · 157 games55% · 153 games
TechiesGenek
Techies
38% · 90 games
Vengeful SpiritGardick
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 89%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2