DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 28 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 14 games
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Ari · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 643 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
378 picks · 612 bans
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 775 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
343 picks · 399 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
OG 72%Natus Vincere Junior 28%
The model gave 72% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenTimado
Broodmotherpma
DawnbreakerWisper
Pudgegotthejuice
Pangolierbzm
Primal BeastNiku
Keeper of the LightCeb
RubickDaze
TinyAri
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Game 2prediction correct30:16
OG 76%Natus Vincere Junior 24%
The model gave 76% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Leshracbzm
SnapfireNiku
MarsWisper
Vengeful Spiritpma
ChenCeb
Centaur WarrunnerDaze
TuskAri
PhoenixRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 87%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2