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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 12 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
22%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 7 games
71%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 5 games
40%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 643 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 611 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
374 picks · 305 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 772 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 351 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 397 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Team Secret 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
58% · 147 games48% · 70 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaBOOM
54% · 148 games41% · 98 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAhFu
51% · 168 games44% · 182 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
53% · 218 games50% · 139 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
48% · 192 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Game 2prediction missed7:24
Team Secret 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCrystallis
49% · 32 games52% · 58 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
45% · 157 games49% · 56 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Io
IoPuppey
62% · 68 games47% · 42 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Bane
BaneAhFu
48% · 39 games47% · 123 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
52% · 17 games
Oraclebengan
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2