DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 2:3series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Natus Vincerewin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
Squad1x · 13 games
Natus Vincere
Lion
Zayac · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 8 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
Razorsignature
Sancity · 7 games
Tinysignature
Zayac · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
392 picks · 642 bans
Lion
382 picks · 355 bans
Mars
377 picks · 611 bans
Techies
373 picks · 305 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 772 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 351 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 392 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Virtus.pro 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSquad1x
MeepoYuragi
TerrorbladeKiritych
Death ProphetNefrit
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
PuckSancity
MiranaFng
Shadow DemonZayac
Rubicksayuw
PugnaMalady
Game 2prediction missed8:30
Virtus.pro 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSquad1x
MorphlingYuragi
LifestealerKiritych
Queen of PainSancity
MarsNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Leshracsayuw
Crystal MaidenMalady
MiranaFng
Shadow DemonZayac
Game 3prediction missed6:24
Virtus.pro 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSquad1x
MorphlingYuragi
SvenKiritych
Keeper of the LightSancity
DoomNoticed
Death ProphetNefrit
Rubicksayuw
PugnaMalady
TechiesFng
LionZayac
Game 4prediction correct27:21
Virtus.pro 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:03:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawNoticed
Arc WardenYuragi
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
KunkkaSancity
MorphlingKiritych
Death ProphetNefrit
EnigmaFng
UndyingMalady
Pugnasayuw
LionZayac
Game 5prediction missed21:32
Virtus.pro 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKiritych
LifestealerYuragi
SlardarNoticed
Primal BeastNefrit
KunkkaSquad1x
Dragon KnightSancity
Pugnasayuw
EnigmaZayac
Vengeful SpiritFng
GyrocopterMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5