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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zerowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%

Team Zero

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lion
iceice · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 632 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 597 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 760 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 377 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
Team Bright 42%Team Zero 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaUlu
47% · 76 games55% · 114 games
Alchemistpoyoyo
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaXwy
50% · 170 games49% · 135 games
Keeper of the Light7e
Keeper of the Light
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
50% · 118 games55% · 209 games
DoomBEYOND
Doom
Batrider
BatriderTK
49% · 279 games48% · 196 games
Centaur Warrunnerzzq
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRedPanda
50% · 172 games45% · 161 game
LionPonlo
Lion
Game 2prediction missed30:16
Team Bright 41%Team Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Bright in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaXwy
51% · 60 games56% · 108 games
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Lifestealer
LifestealerUlu
47% · 116 games53% · 230 games
Pangolier7e
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarIrving
49% · 33 games51% · 154 games
MarsBEYOND
Mars
Batrider
BatriderTK
49% · 319 games53% · 142 games
Miranazzq
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
49% · 213 games44% · 107 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct19:25
Team Bright 42%Team Zero 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXwy
53% · 128 games48% · 93 games
Anti-Magepoyoyo
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingUlu
49% · 189 games53% · 183 games
KunkkaBEYOND
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierIrving
49% · 228 games50% · 31 game
Slardar7e
Slardar
Tusk
TuskTK
45% · 143 games52% · 208 games
Nature's Prophetzzq
Nature's Prophet
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRedPanda
44% · 29 games53% · 202 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 64%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3