PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LCLa Correntadaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
Luna
Double King · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
La Correntada
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 630 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 593 bans
Techies
370 picks · 301 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 755 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 346 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 373 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:43
GRIN esports 75%La Correntada 25%
The model gave 75% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 42:40.
Game 2prediction correct15:51
GRIN esports 75%La Correntada 25%
The model gave 75% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 32:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 75%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2