DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tteam_monkeys-loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 13 games
Tinysignature
Lelis · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
team_monkeys-
Lifestealersignature
Double King · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
albinozebra · 3 games
Mirana
albinozebra · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
albinozebra · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 625 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 587 bans
Techies
370 picks · 298 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 750 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 344 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 366 bans
Hoodwink
330 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:7
nouns 72%team_monkeys- 28%
The model gave 72% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYuma
LifestealerDouble King
LeshracCopy
Storm SpiritRCY
WindrangerGunnar
Miranaalbinozebra
TinyLelis
Centaur Warrunnermonkeys-forever
PhoenixFly
Game 2prediction correct43:9
nouns 75%team_monkeys- 25%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperCopy
LunaDouble King
PudgeYuma
Broodmothermonkeys-forever
BrewmasterGunnar
InvokerRCY
ClockwerkLelis
Ogre Magialbinozebra
RubickFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 89%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2