DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 21 game
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
Apex Genesis
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
red2 · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 625 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 587 bans
Techies
370 picks · 298 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 750 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 344 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 366 bans
Hoodwink
330 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:14
Shopify Rebellion 70%Apex Genesis 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeArteezy
Pangolierred2
Templar AssassinYopaj
Naga SirenLowskill
RubickThiolicor
BeastmasterFayde
TinySabeRLight-
Shadow DemonYamSun
46% · 156 games
HoodwinkBliNcc
Game 2prediction correct47:18
Shopify Rebellion 66%Apex Genesis 34%
The model gave 66% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetYopaj
Templar AssassinLowskill
Shadow FiendArteezy
Pangolierred2
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
SnapfireThiolicor
PugnaBliNcc
58% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 83%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2