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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PlayTimeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 26 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 17 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
20%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 10 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
546 picks · 328 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 571 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 230 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 355 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 488 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
336 picks · 228 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
320 picks · 851 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 817 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct60:70
Team Falcons 71%PlayTime 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
56% · 100 games50% · 130 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
42% · 381 game59% · 215 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Doom
DoomATF
43% · 167 games55% · 97 games
LargoFrank
Largo
Lich
LichSneyking
49% · 60 games52% · 432 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
44% · 302 games53% · 136 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct40:49
Team Falcons 70%PlayTime 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:08:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
52% · 365 games46% · 171 game
ViperFrank
Viper
Tiny
TinySkiter
44% · 445 games55% · 294 games
Shadow FiendWits
Shadow Fiend
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
44% · 205 games54% · 494 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
56% · 194 games45% · 148 games
UndyingScofield
Undying
Lich
LichSneyking
50% · 42 games56% · 144 games
LargoElmisho
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2