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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TI Boysloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TI Boys

No games played over 6 months.

Matreshka Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 616 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 581 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
369 picks · 295 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 737 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 359 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
TI Boys 47%Matreshka Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 27:38.
Game 2prediction correct48:22
TI Boys 47%Matreshka Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 38:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 53%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2