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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rest Farmerswin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Panda · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 616 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 581 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
369 picks · 295 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
351 picks · 737 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 359 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:42
Rest Farmers 72%JustBetter 28%
The model gave 72% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by JustBetter in 25:33.
Game 2prediction correct27:42
Rest Farmers 72%JustBetter 28%
The model gave 72% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 1:13:02.
Game 3prediction correct23:46
Rest Farmers 72%JustBetter 28%
The model gave 72% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 38:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 72%
Series resultRest Farmers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3