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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 577 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 294 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 733 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct56:48
1w Team 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMunkushi~
52% · 109 games45% · 54 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
56% · 295 games50% · 208 games
Keeper of the LightLarl
Keeper of the Light
Windranger
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
52% · 151 game44% · 34 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
51% · 239 games49% · 207 games
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
54% · 190 games43% · 481 game
RubickMira
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed33:10
1w Team 25%Team Spirit 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
53% · 167 games55% · 51 game
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
LycanCloud
51% · 76 games57% · 84 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
48% · 143 games50% · 215 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetswedenstrong
49% · 165 games44% · 352 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
46% · 193 games50% · 42 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed38:22
1w Team 27%Team Spirit 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by 1w Team in 55:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
48% · 226 games53% · 129 games
LifestealerYatoro
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
54% · 404 games47% · 163 games
WindrangerLarl
Windranger
Razor
RazorCloud
52% · 123 games46% · 257 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
54% · 131 game46% · 193 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
54% · 264 games46% · 406 games
RubickMiposhka
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3