PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionOOutPlay.Tytloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TBTI Boyswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OutPlay.Tyt
No games played over 6 months.
TI Boys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Mars
370 picks · 577 bans
Techies
367 picks · 294 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 733 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% OutPlay.Tyt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% OutPlay.Tyt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:2
OutPlay.Tyt 53%TI Boys 47%
The model gave 53% on OutPlay.Tyt — the game was taken by TI Boys in 21:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteOutPlay.Tyt · 53%
Series resultTI Boys 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1