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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
86%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 6 games
83%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 16 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 577 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 294 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 733 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
Natus Vincere 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
49% · 127 games50% · 154 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
55% · 284 games50% · 303 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 237 games48% · 195 games
KunkkaNoticed
Kunkka
Techies
TechiesZayac
50% · 236 games50% · 133 games
Gyrocoptersayuw
Gyrocopter
Pugna
PugnaMalady
58% · 131 game43% · 230 games
Crystal MaidenFng
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed34:23
Natus Vincere 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:06:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSancity
42% · 149 games54% · 117 games
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
41% · 135 games52% · 253 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
50% · 163 games56% · 91 game
LycanNoticed
Lycan
Mirana
MiranaMalady
57% · 189 games47% · 182 games
Crystal MaidenFng
Crystal Maiden
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
48% · 186 games54% · 179 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction correct15:30
Natus Vincere 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSancity
51% · 175 games53% · 221 game
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
45% · 84 games51% · 155 games
KunkkaSquad1x
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
45% · 190 games55% · 148 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesZayac
50% · 303 games50% · 216 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Undying
UndyingMalady
45% · 225 games55% · 237 games
MiranaFng
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3