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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 575 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 293 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 730 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:35
Team NextUp 25%Natus Vincere Junior 75%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1