PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bushidoloss 0:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bushido
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 614 bans
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
Mars
370 picks · 575 bans
Techies
367 picks · 293 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 730 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 351 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:14
Bushido 39%Matreshka Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 29:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 61%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1