PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Timebombloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocoptersignature
bengan · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 7 games
Sven
Ulnit · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 6 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 6 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 6 games
Bane
bengan · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
Timebomb
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 612 bans
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
Mars
370 picks · 570 bans
Techies
367 picks · 292 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 726 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 340 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 350 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:33
MOUZ 81%Timebomb 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 16:11.
Game 2prediction correct15:3
MOUZ 81%Timebomb 19%
The model gave 81% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 10:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 81%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2