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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
One Movewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
Moonlight · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
AfterLife · 5 games
20%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
chempik · 4 games
25%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
chempik · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Xakoda · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 611 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 569 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 292 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 725 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 350 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 35%
Hero pool strength56% Monte
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Monte 31%One Move 69%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 69%
Series resultOne Move 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1