PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TATT Academyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 19 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Luna
Satanic · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Rubick
rue · 10 games
TT Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
379 picks · 610 bans
Lion
379 picks · 350 bans
Mars
370 picks · 568 bans
Techies
367 picks · 292 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 724 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 339 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 350 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 197 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TT Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Yellow Submarine 80%TT Academy 20%
The model gave 80% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1