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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
red2 · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 1 game
100%
Sven
Sven
Lowskill · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
100%

nouns

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 14 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 12 games
83%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
377 picks · 611 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 571 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
367 picks · 291 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 724 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 346 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 196 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:13
Apex Genesis 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
48% · 113 games48% · 167 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Puck
Puckred2
49% · 219 games49% · 134 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaFayde
55% · 157 games45% · 78 games
RazorGunnar
Razor
Pugna
PugnaBliNcc
53% · 182 games52% · 247 games
BatriderLelis
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYamSun
55% · 165 games45% · 210 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed19:8
Apex Genesis 31%nouns 69%
The model gave 69% on nouns — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
51% · 160 games56% · 150 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Death Prophet
Death Prophetred2
48% · 75 games50% · 223 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
49% · 264 games50% · 206 games
MarsGunnar
Mars
Batrider
BatriderBliNcc
49% · 288 games48% · 219 games
LionLelis
Lion
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonYamSun
46% · 210 games52% · 199 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 81%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2