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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
53%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 8 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
375 picks · 609 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 567 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
366 picks · 291 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
348 picks · 720 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 345 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 196 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
1w Team 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 20:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMunkushi~
54% · 161 game44% · 240 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
52% · 289 games55% · 41 game
Dazzlenicky`cool
Dazzle
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
49% · 269 games52% · 178 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterswedenstrong
48% · 140 games45% · 461 game
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
52% · 236 games52% · 175 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct29:14
1w Team 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
48% · 275 games46% · 112 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Lifestealer
LifestealerMunkushi~
56% · 135 games50% · 107 games
Queen of Painnicky`cool
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
49% · 269 games50% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
52% · 196 games44% · 481 game
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
57% · 209 games47% · 157 games
Vengeful Spiritaik
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 53%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2