?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Mirana
Miranasignature
Skem · 11 games
64%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Natsumi · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Skem · 8 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Skem · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 7 games
14%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Jing · 7 games
57%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 10 games
80%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 9 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
376 picks · 610 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 566 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
366 picks · 291 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 717 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 195 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 345 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
Geek Fam 48%Talon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 55:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
52% · 244 games46% · 147 games
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Lina
LinaMac
45% · 80 games55% · 98 games
MagnusWs
Magnus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
54% · 222 games49% · 61 game
RazorCHYuan
Razor
45% · 211 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
55% · 29 games
Elder TitanPonyo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct6:22
Geek Fam 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
46% · 94 games55% · 52 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracMac
51% · 113 games52% · 64 games
Dragon KnightWs
Dragon Knight
Pugna
PugnaSkem
45% · 181 game59% · 92 games
Keeper of the LightCHYuan
Keeper of the Light
41% · 93 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
56% · 87 games
MiranaPonyo
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 51%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2