DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 350 bans
Centaur Warrunner
372 picks · 600 bans
Techies
364 picks · 290 bans
Mars
362 picks · 559 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Batrider
343 picks · 706 bans
Hoodwink
328 picks · 195 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Talon Esports 59%Blacklist International 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:29.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Talon Esports 59%Blacklist International 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 59%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2